Will we see a sharp drop in Wii sales similar to last year?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

They are expecting at least 52M shipped by start of April, right? Of course, as they increased production for holidays, perhaps 53M (I find it more likely, Nintendo's claims are always on the conservative side). Possibly 54M.

This means 50-52.5M sold (big range, I know)

So, as we're looking at 46-46.5M ETY 08, this means there might just be 4-6M for the 13 (or 12) weeks.

I really doubt it would be as low as 4M, but 5M is possible. That's 400K/week.

 

So we're really looking at 350K to 450K weekly (pessimistic to optimistic). I think it will be in the lower part of that range

 

For a comparison, these are the sales this year (for 13 weeks ending 5th April).

 

Wii: 4.13M (320K/Week)

Ps3: 2.43M (187K/week)

X360: 1.72M (132K/week)

 

Wii sales in Q2 = 6M

Wii sales in Q3 = 4.8M

 

So there wasn't really a huge shortage in Q1 08 (they unleashed stockpiles in Q2 along with MKWii to counter GTA IV).

 

If we follow that trend, we're looking at 5M for each quarter, and 13M for holidays. Q1 will be slightly smaller (~ 4.5-4.75M) which is 350-375K

 

So, using these 2 methods, I see ~ 5M for Q1 08, perhaps slightly lower. This means ~ 375K weekly.

 

For January (excluding week ending 3rd, I consider that to be 08), we could be looking at at low as 1.2M (~ 1/4 of total sales, if past trends are to be trusted). That's 300K/week (for January), but would mean 420K/week for February/March.

So 275K-325K for January weeks (not counting last week of 08). First will be lower (ala 225K?) and then up to 325K for the other 3 weeks.

 

This means we will not be seeing any "the Wii is doomed" threads (except for maybe in single territories), as we're looking at 360 selling 175-200K/week in January, and Ps3 selling 100-125K/week. (total = ~ 300K as well), meaning a pretty much exactly 50-50 share between Wii and Ps360.