Probably bigger starting numbers for BioShock due to the larger US/Canada install base and plus it seems to be the kind of game that the target Xbox 360 player would want moreso than Wii players with MP3.
HOWEVER -- I am fairly certain that MP3 will have much better legs than Bioshock. Super Paper Mario is still doing quite nicely and it was released in April -- Zelda TP is top 20 most weeks despite being almost 10 months old.
Its hard for me to predict the beginning numbers but I think the cumulative US/CA ones will be:
BioShock 1.6m
Metroid Prime 3 2.5m







