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Probably bigger starting numbers for BioShock due to the larger US/Canada install base and plus it seems to be the kind of game that the target Xbox 360 player would want moreso than Wii players with MP3.

 HOWEVER --  I am fairly certain that MP3 will have much better legs than Bioshock. Super Paper Mario is still doing quite nicely and it was released in April -- Zelda TP is top 20 most weeks despite being almost 10 months old.

 Its hard for me to predict the beginning numbers but I think the cumulative US/CA ones will be:

 BioShock           1.6m

 Metroid Prime 3 2.5m