@ Squilliam
Well reasoned and thought out. I don't find anything to disagree with except the timing. I really think they may move sooner. Possibly as soon as the economics look better. Two things could push things up possibly.
1. Motion+. I've been reading up on the technology and it will address most of the legitimate complaints about motion control. Just not liking it, well what can you do. In an case, if it works as well as I think it will, you may have a lot more interest from the hard core gamers but they aren't liely to jump ship without the graphics.
2. Game developers. A lot of developers want to do HD but are having trouble making it pay. They're gun shy and understandably so. They would probably like a HD platform with a huge secondary SD installed based as a free bonus.
Granted, it would be a bold step, and if executed well could squeeze Microsoft and Sony badly. But after what we've seen from them in the last few years, I think they may just be bold enough.
