Will the Wii have 50% market share by the end of 2009?

[Millennium]

The post-holiday cooldown in Wii sales will take longer than it will for other consoles, as it always has in the past. Given that it is already so close to crossing 50%, I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that it will achieve that milestone sometime in early 2009.

But will it stay over 50% through the end of the year, or will the other consoles begin to catch up? That's a very different question. Personally, I believe the Wii will stay over 50% until the end of this generation; I just don't see anything in the other consoles' futures that has the potential to change their fortunes that much. But things become a lot easier to argue on this score.