Will the Wii have 50% market share by the end of 2009?

[tombi123]

zleep said:
@tombi: You are right, I was just talking in the hypothetical case where Wii starts to die off, which is not gonna happen. If the Wii received a pricecut then HD sales would be even smaller.

But tell me, do you expect a massive YoY growth in console sales next year? Why?
You have PS3 at 15 million and 360 at 13.5 million, Wii at 30 million.

Thats a total of 58 million vs approx 49 million this year. I honestly see no way of how that could be happening considering we will be having a full year with an economic crisis.

Can you explain me how a 9 million growth will be possible? I can only see that happening if Wii supply goes up even more, HD consoles will not see that kind of bump.

 

Sorry, I misread/misinterpreted what you wrote. 

Well the YoY growth comes from, a whole year of the 360 being at a very low price. The premium model is cheaper than the Wii in Europe and the arcade is £20 more than a PS2 (in the UK)! I think microsoft could also do a 50$ price cut in NA if sales dry up a bit. 

I only think the PS3 will could reach 15M if it has a 100$/£/Euro price cut. And even then its not certain. 

I agree that if Nintendo increase production to more than 2.4M a month, than the Wii will be at more than 50% market share at the end of 2009.