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considering gears 1(release in jan 17 2007) did about 60k in the 6 weeks and 80k liftime when the number of 360 in japan was about 300k, i say it did pretty good. now that 360 is about 800k, Gears 2 should be able to do over 100k in the frist couple of weeks and 150k life, that would be a success for MS.