Well, there's no question (in my mind) that motion controls/IR & speaker in controller are all new standards - and rumble is restandardized (now that sixaxis is history). So I expect all consoles will have that or equivelant next gen.
The question is, what else? They will need to not only match the market's expectations but also to surpass them and differentiate themselves from their competition.
I expect Nintendo to heavily go after women. They are building that market now and I think even next gen it'll be almost 100% theirs. That 50% right there. They'll also go for kids, as always, casuals and their nintendofanboys.
So whatever they do controller wise will be very focused on what would appeal to women's sensibilities without being outright girlish.
Sony will be heavily focused on casuals next gen. The PS2 WAS the casual system last gen. Losing that audience cost them this generation. They will be back in the casual market in force next gen but not forsaken the core as much as Nintendo's done. Sony isn't the most innovative company though. So I expect a cross between a Wiimote and a PS3 controller, perhaps the break apart model we've already seen in rumours.
MS will remain the corest of the core systems but also heavily chase that casual market. Thing is I don't think they are too imaginative either. So I expect a lot of Nintendo and Sony copying. Controller will be very functional but not very sexy.
If Apple releases one the controller will be a thin white motion sensing I-touch with a touch and pressure sensitive screen on top and bottom and IR. Just a white wafer that fits nicely into the hand and nothing more.
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