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If it's somehow determined that the blu-ray factor is a big cause of increased sales with the price-cut PS3 and if it's clear as day that it's destined for big things, then MS may consider implementing an internal blu-ray drive in a different sku instead of any price reductions next year.

Imagine that the Arcade-equivalent sku could undercut the cheapest PS3 making it hard to see any extra value in the PS3, having lost the blu-ray feature exclusive. Even today you can get a Lite-On 4x BD for $73 and then you'd factor in wholesale prices and a production date of mid-to late '09 then the price should be greatly reduced and $250 could be a feasible price.

Lite-On 4x BD price.
http://www.amazon.com/Liteon-Reader-Black-Retail-Pack/dp/B0010ZWYF8/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=pc&qid=1229815785&sr=1-2