| Truthsayer said: I am just concerned that the next console race won't be quite so good for Nintendo. Microsoft and sony will clearly have motion sensing controllers. Nintendo must make third party friends NOW! |
Wow, I disagree. Nintendo is in a brilliant position for the next generation after this one. Think about this....
MS and Sony: Right now they are going to be expected to push the envelope as usual on graphics, maybe not to the extent they did this generation but they will be expected to push it nevertheless. While they spend literally hundreds of millions and even billions of dollars to push their graphics they also have to then be concerned about motion controls. But their motion controls will be lacking a generations worth of thorough trial/error. Sony has the SIXAXIS of course and that will give them a leg up on MS but its not the same as the Wii where almost every developer is giving serious time and consideration to the motion controls.
Nintendo: About 5-6 years after the launch of the Wii is when they will most likely launch a new console. Given the current rate of technology doubling every 18 months (see Moore's Law) consider how vastly improved the Wii graphics will be over there current situation.
Now astute readers will point out that Moore's Law works for the PS3 and the 360 as well. But the major differences lies in the fact that the Sony/MS achieved their graphical leaps through the addition of a premium price tag. They will have to choose one of three unenviable choices, which are of course: Include affordable technology and provide a smaller graphical boost, Include premium technology for a premium price, or Include premium technology and eat the extra cost.
Nintendo has a situation where they can simply use the parts similarly priced to what they used last generation to build the new console. This will of course net them a significantly more powerful machine than the Wii. But they also have another benefit working for them, the fact that the Wii is a proven concept now will allow Nintendo to feel far more secure in their venture the second time around, as a result it is very likely they will feel more comfortable with a smaller profit margin on the console and as a result we could see even more power from the extra expenditures. When you add to that a generations worth experience gained from the motion controls you get a pretty good situation.
Honestly my gut feeling is that the graphics will be generally accepted as a secondary consideration next generation so it seems likely that the next Sony/MS consoles will be much more affordable as they choose to go with parts that aren't quite as extreme.
PS - Anyone who thinks the PS3 will be the latest Sony console for 10 years is delusional, it would be very outdated after about 6-7 years. Sony will release their next console around the same time as Nintendo does and more than likely MS will have another 12 month head start.
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
