PS2's install base was about 4.9m when FFX launched. And the game did 1.455.000 in its first day and 1.9m in its 1st week (I think Famitsu says it did 1.75m first week though, but I cant find its data anywhere)
LTD sales of FFX in Japan is 2.32 million. 3 millions that vgchartz shows include additional editions like "Ultimate Hits", "International version" etc. The original FFX has sold 2.32 million in Japan.
I believe PS3 will have 4m. sold by the time FFXIII launches. And the game will sell to 40% of PS3's users on its launch week. So 1.6 million 1st week sounds real to me.
But, it is Japan we are talking about, and this is Final Fantasy. The series which hasnt seen a decrease in sales in Japan since 1999. (FFIX - 2.7m FFX - 3m. FFXII - 2.48m) Hardcore gamers will go out and buy it and the system for it, no matter what the system is.
So I'm calling it now - FFXIII will do 1.7m in its 1st week in Japan. 2.4 million Lifetime.
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