DS - 132.5m Why? Still supply constrained in the USA/Europe. If demand slows at all, DSi comes in to boost it up. Japan gets Dragon Quest IX in March, and experiences like GTA: China Town may bring in some new people yet.
Wii - 80m Why? I believe Motion Plus is the Wii-equivalent of DS Lite, in that it expands the original idea behind the device in a better way. It should either reinvigorate slowing sales or accelerate already massive sales, and I lean towards the latter. I'm expecting Wii at 45.5m at the end of 2008, so yeah, I'm expecting Wii production to be up. Its looking like they'll ship 28m or so in the year ending March 2009, so 35m in a year is "only" 30% growth from the previous year. But 17.5m shipped to 28m shipped was 60% growth.
PSP - 53.5m Why? It is slowly slowing down in the Americas and Europe after a strong start, although it is performing well in Japan. I suspect the DSi will cut further into it in the west since it will be able to download games too. Selling 9m-10m is still pretty good though. Probably 3.0-3.75m in each of the three major regions.
Xbox 360 - 38.5m Why? I think it will start strongly since I don't expect Sony can drop the PS3 price before June. But after that, I think Europe will get a PS3 price cut, and that will cut into 360 sales, as even this year 360 sales are nearly identical to last year in the Americas/USA. A big December would Xbox 360 up 10%...but considering the average 360 costs like $270 when the skus are weighted by who bought what it seems like all growth is price dependent now and not game dependent. Probably another small USA price cut if Sony cuts price somewhere on PS3.
PS3 - 31m Why? I suspect Microsoft won't cut price until Sony does...but then it will. So until June, I think it will be down compared to 2008 in all three world regions. From June onward, after the price cut, it should perk up in Europe and I dont think Japan will be under 1m again with Final Fantasy XIII likely to arrive in December (Japan only). Sales for Christmas should be up in the west too if Gran Turismo 5 actually makes it out, thats probably Sony's best unplayed card at this point in terms of games.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
