It's a difficult question to answer perfectly.
When will things turn around for Sony from a unit standpoint? When they drop the price. PS3 sales should pick up and do well once it hits that $300 price point. However, I am unsure how "well" it will do - I expect a 30% YOY increase next year due to a price cut late in 2009.
If the question is 'when will things turn around agains the X360/Wii' - the answer is far more bleak. Sony is pretty much screwed, and I'll tell you why:
As much as I'm optimistic for Sony to drop the price next year, and that it'll spur sales, the problem is that Sony killed themselves by not dropping the price this year. The gap between it and the X360 is 7.3 million consoles, and should grow to 8 million by the end of 2008 (if not a little more). The problem is that when Sony does drop it's price next year - the X360 will also be in a very strong position to lower it's prices too, negating any sort of gap-decreasing measures Sony does.
Because correct me if I'm wrong, but - Sony has no plans to introduce a PS3 slimline model in 2009 which would boost sales. Microsoft does for the X360, though. So although both should be good in terms of price cuts, Microsoft holds better hand with the Slim, which should boost sales. If Sony cannot cut the lead to 5 million consoles by the end of 09...I don't think it's possible for the PS3 to make up that gap by the end of the generation, or the end of relevance.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
