Can the Wii pass DS LTD?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Just one semi off topic note before my real reply starts.

"DS may pass Ps2 as early as in 2 years from now."

Actually, DS could pass the Ps2 in 2009!

 

We're looking at ~ 124M Ps2s ETY 08. That's around 8M for the year. It is clearly going to drop off, and 129-130M for the end of 09 is pretty reasonable.

 

DS is going to be at ~ 96M ETY 08, and is showing no signs of slowing down in Europe/Americas. With the DSi releasing, and a possible DSL price cut, it could easily sell as much here as it did in 08 (which seems to be ~ 32M).

In Japan, DS 09 may actually outsell 08, thanks to DSi. Still, how close they will be isn't certain.

Of course, this is looking optimistically at it, but if DS manages to sell 33-34M, it will be pretty much dead on with Ps2. 33-34M is perfectly reasonable - assuming that DSi takes off to the same extent as DSL of course.

So by end of 09 is possible.

End of FY 2010 (1st April '10) is actually likely, as you can expect DS to outsell Ps2 by ~ 5M (if not more).

 

So DS has a slight chance of beating the Ps2 by the end of 09, and a good chance of doing so by April 2010.

 

 

Okay, that was a long semi reply, eh? Well fear not! There's more. This is the real reply though, not fake as the one above.

 

Using the "sales from launch" graph is actually quite meaningless here, as DS didn't take off as fast as Wii.

 

I believe you should rather ask yourself "how much will the DS sell?".

 

Making a rough estimate here is pretty easy.

 

DS will be at 96M ETY 08. We can expect at least ~ 30M for 09, making it ~ 125M.

 

There's no way a new DS (successor) will come before late 2010 or 2011, remember that they released  (does past tense about the future work in English too?) the DSi in mid 09.

 

So 2010 should still be a very good year for DS. ~ 23M seems reasonable to me. 20-25M really.

Then for 2011, it could, depending on when the successor comes, sell another 15-25M.

 

That leaves it at ~ 170M (160-180) before the successor comes.

 

Now, remember that the Gameboy Advance, which was really inferior to the DS in every way sold over 18M after the DS launched. The DS could easily outdo that, and make 30M after the successor launches.

That doesn't mean it will sell 30M after 2011 though, as the successor is likely to be launched in 11. So 180-210M is my prediction for DS.

 

Will the Wii make 180M? I doubt that very much.

 

The Wii is unlikely to beat 70M in Americas, ~ 60M seems reasonable (Ps2 = 50M)

Beating 70M in western Europe is also out of the question. ~ 50M seems reasonable here too (Ps2 = 36M)

Then 15M from Japan (Ps2 = 21M)

Then the rest of Others puts in 15-25M (Ps2 = 15M)

 

Which leaves it at 140-160M (Others could take off). Beating that seems pretty impossible to me.

Why? Well, the Ps3 and X360 are looking like they will outsell GC + XB (no DC, as pretty much every DC owner was forced to buy another console) by 60-70M.

This would mean, that Ps2 had at least 30M customers that the Wii "lost" (they went to Ps3/X360). Wii is attracting 40M totally new gamers, and the rest of the Ps2 crowd (of course not entirely) purchases Wii.

 

That explanation there is a bit skectchy, so ignore that if you want.

 

Anyway, I believe the best case scenario for Wii (vs DS) is ending 20M behind. More likely is ~ 40M

 

PS: Yes, I am aware that this thread is longer better than the other 8 posts in this thread combined.