What is this, 2006 all over again?
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http://www.edge-online.com/features/how-long-are-gtas-legs
An even greater disparity is rooted in the analysts' estimates for GTA: Chinatown Wars for DS. Launching on March 17 in the U.S., its content is decidedly mature-themed and a far cry from Nintendo-published, multi-million kid-friendly sellers like New Super Mario Bros., Brain Age and Pokemon.
But Hickey estimates that worldwide, Chinatown will sell 5 million units throughout the year. "We're assuming it's going to be a great game. It'll also allow the DS to target a new audience. It's a core gamer release, not a Nintendo release, so I expect it will drive hardware sales."
The DS' massive installed base of over 84 million units worldwide, and expected growth throughout 2009, also helps Chinatown's prospects, Hickey said. "Look at what Brain Age did for the female audience." Chinatown has the potential to become the hardcore equivalent to that game from a sales perspective, he projected.
Pachter isn't nearly as optimistic. "I'll be shocked if GTA: Chinatown Wars sells more than 500,000 in the U.S.," the analyst stated. Referring to U.S. data, Pachter wrote, "The top third-party titles are Hannah Montana at no. 16 (1.3 million units), Cooking Mama at no. 17 (1.2 million), the Guitar Hero bundle at no. 19 (1.1 million) and My Sims at no. 23 (1 million). Everything else below a million.
"Thus, if GTA Chinatown Wars is the most successful third party title ever, it will likely sell around half of the Janco estimate.
"There is something to be said for the fact that the top third party title is Hannah Montana. There is probably not a lot of overlap in audience for that game and for GTA."
