Ok lets see how close GT5 can be to 10 million, it's real close.
Let's say that Gran Turismo 5 will release on January of 2010 (I don't know if that's true but it might be around that date) the userbase of the PS3 (this is the minimum of what the PS3 could be) should be around 3.5 million in Japan, 10 million in America and 14 million in Total Others (Basically figured out what the PS3 sold this year in each region and copied it for next year) so that's a total of 27.5 million.
Now lets say something happened and the PS3 was discontinued next year and only sold 27.5 million for the generation, now out of that 27.5 million how much should be sold in each region.
So gran Turismo 3 and 4 both sold 10% of the toal PS2 sold in Total others, so that's 1.4 million for GT5 in Total Others, and 14% of PS2 owners in America owned GT3, but for some reason only 5% own GT4, so let's split it down the middle and say 10% PS3 owners will buy GT5 so thats 1 million, now for Japan there was 8.5% of PS2 owners owned GT3 and only 5% own GT4 in Japan so lets say 6.5% of PS3 owners for Japan will buy GT5, thats 220K (looks way to low I know). So the total should be around 2.6 million (this is the minimum number GT5 will sell from what I see, it should sell alot more then that total).
Seems very low but there's alot of factors I didn't take into account, like a PS3 price cut, a very possible bundle, the release date of the game and obviously the PS3 isn't going to end this generation with 27.5 million, it should be able to sell atlease 65 million for this generation. So I figured out that 2.6 million of 27.5 million PS3's, should be around 6.1 million if the PS3 sold a total of 65 million, not to mention the bundles and the PS3 price cut's in the future, then it should end with around 9 million according to what I got.
(Again this is if everything stays exactly the same as it is now for the rest of the PS3's generation)
