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DonWii on 25 August 2007
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TWRoO said:
DonWii said:
Well said, Rol.

That 90% consists of PS2/Cube/Xbox owners. I would say that only 5% of Wii owners never owned a console before. Nintendo still has a long way to go expanding the market with the Wii, but they already did it with the DS, especially in Japan.

 

would you or Rol have estimates of how the 90% is broken down? [ie better than mine....as mine is just total guesswork based on sales] i reckon about 50% of the 90% owned a GC last gen, though this is decreasing as the world is running out of GC owners. probably 60-70% had a Ps2, because almost every gamer seems to have a ps2 [i was considering buying one recently and getting a few cheap games, but the ps2 is still like £110!..what the hell!] and finally i would guess maybe 10% had an x-box, because Nintendo and microsofts fanbase don't seem to cross over very much.

Using this chart for reference:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=GC&reg2=All&cons3=GC&reg3=All&align=1

Looking at the first 33 or so weeks, the Wii moved around 10M units, while the GC moved around 4M units. If you assume that those 4M represent the core Nintendo Fan following, who would buy Nintendo products on a whim(though I doubt that is the whole reasoning, since Super Smash Brothers Melee was a big system mover early on, and the GC's best seller) then you could assume that around the same 4M-or 40%- of the 10M Wii's are owned by this demographic. I would put it at even less, consideing that Super Smash Bros. Brawl hasn't even been released.

Due to the Wii60 phenomenom, I would say that  10%-1M- of Wii owners previously owned an Xbox and either own or plan on owning a 360 in the future.

I will group Dreamcast owners and PS2 owners together. The remaining 40%-4M- Wii owners are comprised of this demographic. They include, I would say, 2M mainstream(core/hardcroe) gamers who upgraded to Wii(myself included) and 2M casual gamers that went with the more casual friendly/cheap system. Of the 2M mainstream(core/hardcore), I would say that 500k either have or plan on getting a PS3 when it is at a cheaper price.

Assuming only 10%-or 1M- of Wii owners did not own a 6th generation console, the demographic that fits this percentage is split in two: those who were lapsed gamers and those who are NEW gamers. This demographic is the one that has the most potential to grow, and is currently limited by the lack of supply. 

I would write-up the possible growth of each for this generation, but about half of it is speculative and very debatable.