Your December 31st 2009 PS3-360 Gap Predictions

[amirnetz]

Microsoft will exit 2008 with an 8M gap over Sony.

The Sony price cut will not come before Oct 09 and will not be larger than $50. It is just as likely that they will just sell the $160GB model at the $400 price.

I see the 360 continueing the 2:1 sales ratio momentum untouched until EO sep 09 selling 6M units WW vs 3.5M units for the PS3 for the same time period.

Going into the Holidays Sony will try to become more competitive. But they will have just few degrees of freedom. They cannot take the price down too much because they cannot afford to lose money on the units so they will try to up the specs and use bundles. Also some AAA exclusives will come out at that time (GOW, GT5). BRD will have a good year in 2009 which will help some the value prop of Sony./

But these moves will not be enough. Microsoft by them will have all the momentum with the hardcore community and they will have their own set of exclusives (the new Halo, Forza...). Sony's Playstation brand name will be beaten to a pulp by the press, analysts and the intertube, and will be eroded to at this point to almost nothingness.

With this I predict 360 Holiday sales to be at 6.5M and Sony's to be at 4M.

So together the 360 will sell 12.5M in 2009 compared to Sony's 7.5M rounding the gap to 13M.