The November NPD Thread (USA data for 4 weeks ending Nov 29 in 6 hours)

[TheSource]

I figure Wii will have 3,000 games or so. For pretty much anyone, no matter their taste, you have to figure 2700 will be horseshit - games the person would never even consider buying. 300 will be good out of the 3000, 100 great out of the 300 good, probably 35 stellar /incredible/revolutionary out of the 100 to any given customer. The average tie ratio is going to somewhere between 5 and 8 for Wii owners at the end of the day, so having 35 stellar games, and 300 good games is more than enough selection.

There are like 400 Wii games now right? So using the same ratio, 360 horseshit, 40 good, 13 great out of the 40 good, and probably 5 stellar (Galaxy, Zack & Wiki, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Brawl I would argue, though sales trends would suggest GHIII is probably the most deserving 3rd party game on Wii) out of the 40 good games. The tie ratio worldwide is about 6.7 games for the average Wii owner right now, so it seems about right to me. It basically comes down to people picking up half the games that are great at the moment

 

I think thats about where Wii is today. For those people who buy 10 games a year, Wii Ware, backwards compatability, and the Virtual Console are an attempt to fill in the gaps until Wii gets to ~1000 games which will be the point where it has enough 'good' games to satisfy even the most picky gamer.

You can say what you want about Wii having shovelware, but something like the N64 had only 300 games, and 240 were still pretty crappy. So yeah, you tend to get higher quality on consoles with less games (maybe 20% of the games are good instead of 10%) but so much more is released on the systems with shovelware that the ratio becomes overwhelming. Second place systems I think tend to get the highest non crap: crap ratio because the crap goes on the biggest base, but you don't want to put your best stuff on the smallest base. I think thats why Microsoft always touts its lineup, as I could make a pretty solid argument that Genesis, N64, Xbox etc had less crappy software than the SNES, PS1, PS2 despite having less quality software too.