When does Sony reach the point of no return in Japan?

[albionus]

Depends on what its not returning to. If you mean return to the market dominance of the PS2 I’d pretty much say that is out of the question short of a total Wii flame out or divine intervention. As for a lesser return to simply #1, I’d give the PS3 at least through this Christmas (or Toy Day or whatever it’s called in Japan). Sony’s one hope is that the PS3’s price is limiting a greater than normal share of sales to the holidays. The end of this year will also give us an idea of how well, or not, the Wii is taking hold of the various gaming demographics. At any rate, 14 months of high Wii and low PS3 sales will likely give the Wii an insurmountable lead even should the PS3 hit a late stride. If you mean no return as in dying off I don’t think the PS3 would do that though I could see it happening. 20,000 units a week is enough to maintain a GameCube level existence which while not profitable for Sony is still manageable. The danger is if the terrible sales cause ever more 3rd party games to jump ship causing gamers to have ever fewer reasons to buy a $600 video game system. I can’t imagine DQ10 not being on the DS or Wii (both? That’d be interesting) at this point but it is a long way off. All of that may bring into question the viability of a PS4 but that’s too far off to think about.