When does Sony reach the point of no return in Japan?

[TheSource]

It seems to me that the only IP this year that could really boost PS3 in Japan for an extended period of time (3+ weeks) is Metal Gear Solid 4. But, look at MGS3 sales - on a much larger userbase in Japan, it sold just over 100,000 copies. Granted MGS, and MGS2 (on PS and PS2), were both huge games in Japan. But even these games never sold over 1 million copies, on platforms with much healthier hardware sales than PS3. I suppose a new hit could come out of nowhere...Heavenly Sword maybe? GTA actually sells fairly well in Japan...but it won't move hardware... I doubt FF will come out this year for PS3. If the hardware base is too small, I expect it will be ported or moved anyway... So my question is...At what point is the PS3 officially at the point of no return in Japan (as in the point at which it can't come back and massacre the Wii)? Sony needs a huge boost at some point, because Super Paper Mario, Brain Academy, Mario, Brawl are all huge...and thats without considering Wii Play & Wii Sports as killer apps...