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There's no telling.

Just on a practical basis, it wont be until sometime in 2008 now.

I think if PS3 notches a couple more big $100 price drops to 399, while microsoft keeps their price stagnant, something like that.

Shit just imagine, if PS3 was to drop another $100, the Elite would actually be more expensive than PS3. I cant imagine MS would allow that to happen.

I think PS3 price cuts will happen faster than people think. You must remember Blu Ray is not a normal component costwise, it's cost will drop (from very high) much faster than a normal component as economies of scale kick in.