Nintendo's 09 Holiday Slate- My Predictions

[Oyvoyvoyv]

bigjon said:

Ok so this year is weak 4th Quarter from nintendo... Alot of this has to do with 3rd parties putting little effort into the Wii and the fact Nintendo released all of their big games in q1 and q2, now what is interesting to me is that several of those titles are selling better than the holiday releases from the HD Consoles. I agree with this. Wii Fit + MKWii combined will probably sell more than the 2 best selling on Ps3 and X360 do (for 5 weeks December) 

Ok for next year I expect Nintendo to push these titles, and they will carry the Wii to similiar success early next year. Ok

Ok to start AC: Wii will have good legs into early next year along with MKWii and WiiFit, so the wii WILL be fine until spring. There are also some decent 3rd party offerings in q1. No on AC. I think AC will sell pretty much ala SMG. Same opening, about same legs. So looking at SMG, I would say it could maintain 150K (tops) weekly in January, but by March it will fall down to ~ 100K.I feel that is actually fairly optimistic. For a comparison, I expect MKWii to sell 150-175K weekly for almost all that time, and Wii Fit to sell 200K +. AC will be a fair amount smaller than Wii Fit or MKWii in that period. I would say Nintendo has 2 types of leg titles after christmas. 1. MKWii + Wii Fit which are insane, and 2. Wii Music/Animal Crossing which are also great sellers, but not as good as MKWii or Wii Fit. AC is in the Wii Fit pile. 

Ok, so we have WiiSports Resort. This is a guaranteed 10million seller if there ever was one. It will be a holiday title too. I see it trending MUCH like MKWii. Strong legs all year then really firing up around cmas. That will take us to the fall. Ok. I think using MKWii instead of Wii Fit was a good idea, as it should be much more like that. 

Ok this is where the predicting happens seeing than Nintendo does not release much far ahead of time...

Ok- the big august release will be Mario Party 9... casual, will have legs until cmas, a great time to release. By that time it will have been 2 years since MP8, and that is an eternity as far as the MP series goes. Will definately release in 2009. No question about it. 

Now in october I think we will see BOTH Kid Icarus and Pikmin 3. Both those title will be core, but yet still have good casual appeal. Personally I don't see Pikmin comming, but won't get into that. 

And the Big Nov launch will be Zelda Wii- It will have been 3 years since the last Zelda, there would be no better way than to win back the core than to release an Awsome zelda. I don't think Nintendo feels they have to win back the core. There is NO WAY they are releasing Mario Party 9, Kid Icarus, Pikmin 3 and Zelda Wii that close together. As MP9 is bound to be around that time, I think that only 2 of KI, SMG2, Pikmin 3 and Zelda Wii can be released in that quarter. 

basically they would cover all their bases with major launches. WiiSports for the really casuals, MP9 for the casuals, Kid Icarus for the core, and old school guys, Pikmin for the main stream, and Zelda for pretty much anyone who likes games. Not to mention MKWii and WiiFit should still but around (most likely not as strong as now, but still major players) Wii Fit will probably outsell Pikmin 3 for the rest of the year if Pikmin launches in October. MKWii will probably do so too. And depending on how big KI is, they might outsell that too.