Right now we're looking at around 7.0 Million Xbox 360's in the US by launch. Preorders and first week sales are on track for at least 2.5 Million, first month sales of at least 4.0 Million. I think its highly unlikely that Halo 3 will have an attach rate of over 50% within a month of launch. I think that Halo 3 will cause Xbox 360 sales to jump to an average of 185K a week for the first four weeks (including launch week). It'll go up & down, but basically sales of 740K around Halo 3 Launch.
Wii sales will drift down a bit further, because I think Nintendo will starve the supply channels a bit more, to try and insure the Wii is still the hot item this Xmas (give up September a bit, to insure a mega Holiday Season). The Wii will still have World Wide sales in the area of at least 160k a week.
The Xbox jump from Halo 3 alone simply won't be near enough to boost it past the Wii. It would take an enormous jump, best case 600K consoles first two launch weeks and a sustained boost for at least another two or three weeks to even tie the Wii. I just can't see that happening at this current rate.
The wildcard is whether Madden and Price Drop can boost sales even higher world wide (from Europe), but just can't imagine it happening.
However I believe Halo 3 will cement the Xbox 360 as the dominant console in America for all of 2007.
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