The numbers just don't work out for the 360 to have a shot at overtaking the Wii again anytime soon. If it were next week it would be a much better chance. But when you are talking about a console having to more than double in sales just to stop losing ground...well at that point you are really moving far beyond the current precedent. As far as I know there isn't an example of a system selling near the 360's levels being doubled or tripled by the release of a game.
My best case 360 scenario for Halo 3 release:
| Week | Xbox 360 | 360 Change** | Wii | Net Difference |
| 0 | -800k | |||
| 1 | 480k | 688.36% | 230k | -550k |
| 2 | 400k | 573.63% | 230k | -380k |
| 3 | 340k | 487.59% | 230k | -270k |
| 4 | 280k | 401.54% | 230k | -220k |
| 5 | 270k | 387.20% | 230k | -180k |
| 6 | 260k | 372.86% | 230k | -150k |
| 7 | 250k | 358.52% | 230k | -130k |
| 8 | 240k | 344.18% | 230k | -120k |
| 9 | 230k | 329.84% | 230k | -120k |
**This is the percentage of change relative to pre-Halo sales |
Edit: Replaced my wall of text with a much easier to understand table.
So in that wall of text above you can see that even with the 360 sales tripling and staying tripled for more than 7 weeks it still doesn't catch the Wii. The answer to the thread title is simply a "no".
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
