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There was never any doubt about the success of first party Nintendo games. Lack of third party games and overall low quality is the issue.

Just looking at the charts, you can see Wii owners are buying the same few games every week, which has a lot to do with the fact that there's not much else to choose from.
It's hard for an HD game to sell hundreds of thousands of untis each week when it has to compete with the constant stream of new releases.

Edit: Not disagreeing. Wii Fit/Sports, Brawl and Mario Kart are just about the biggest system movers out there.