Kantor said:
Are you kidding me? Halo 3: ODST currently has a sales CAP of just over 8 million. And 100% of Halo 3 owners are not going to jump on this game. Let's take WoW and WotLK as examples. 11 million subscribers, yet 2.6 million buy it first week, and I guarantee you after a year, the number will not be in excess of 5 million. Less than half. So we can predict perhaps 4-4.5 million for ODST? Gran Turismo 5 is going to sell double that easily. KZ2 and GoW3 will easily cross 4 million, maybe 5 million. Heavy Rain and inFamous won't sell very well, but they will both be very good games. It's foolish to compare LBP and R2 to GT5. LBP is a new IP. It's 2D. There is an emphasis on creation as opposed to playing. You control a sack. Who expected this to sell well? note that that was not my opinion, but fact. In fact, I think it looks very good and will buy it soon R2 is the second shooter from Insomniac games. We don't have Europe sales data yet, and when we do, it will be ONE DAY. R2's American launch week was more than 7x that of RFOM. Gran Turismo 3 was the best selling exclusive last gen. Over 14 million sales. In fact, it's the second best selling game of that gen, fullstop. The only thing that sold better was GTA San Andreas, with around 17 million. GT is a massive franchise, and it has system selling potential probably as strong as Halo. Maybe stronger. We can safely predict 8 million LTD. In fact, I predict that GT5 will sell more than Sony's entire 2008 holiday lineup combined. Certainly more than Gears 2. Why does everybody keep quoting LBP's sales figures as a sign of things to come. LBP was a rare, one in a million game. It's unlikely we will see anything like LBP in 2009.
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Here is why this post fails.
I will point out that Halo 3 has exceeded the encatchment of Halo 2 and likewise Halo 2 over 1. Now I understand that ODST is an expansion, but to Halo fans (you obviously dont know Halo fans) it's the second coming of christ. Brand new single player and more multiplayer I bet ODST sells 7mill+ LT