Will this generation be the longest yet?

[KBG29]

A couple of weeks ago we had a poll about when everyone thought this generation was going to end. The results had a majority believing that we will see the first next generation console by 2011. I think this is a very possible scenario, but the way the market currently stands I don't see why any of the big three would want to move on by then.

As things stand right now all three console makers are in a very good stop to be profitable and continue to grow marketshare. I will admit I was one of the people that expected to see a new system by 2011, and I was expecting it to be MS, but recent sales trends have given me a much brighter feeling about the length of the current generation. With the success of the 360 over the last couple of months I think that the market has really started to see the system for what it really is. Now that it is at a more mass market friendly price point it has started to find its way into the homes of people that have never come in contact with system enough to understand it is about more than just games. I think the numbers for the last couple of weeks have illistrated just how much of an impact this is having. It seems people are a lot more interested in the system now and it is starting to get that Wii like acceptance (at least in the US). People are now starting to talk about how it has netflix, and it can do these awsome online games, and how the graphics are just amazing (all stuff I never used to here on a daily bases just weeks ago).

So now that the Xbox 360 looks like it is going in a very good direction, and the Wii is doing marvolously I don't see either of these company's wanting to go anywhere soon. That brings things to the PS3. As many have obviously noticed, over the last couple of months the PS3 has been just behind the 360, and the last few weeks it has been falling even further as the effect mentioned above has started pushing 360 into places it would have never gone before. Some see this as a bad thing and feel the PS3 is done for, but that is just not the case.

Sony is doing something right now that I think will help expand the life of this generation for a couple of extra years. They know that first place in not something they can't sprint to, and it is very likly that they can not achive it. As far as second goes the time is not right, and there is no reason to get in a price war with Microsoft especially with the cost of there hardware way to high to have any good outcome. So what Sony has done, an I commend them for it, is sit at a price where they know they can not gain ground, but they also can't bleed profit. If Sony sticks with this buisness model things are going to really start looking up for this generation. Microsoft can continue to outsell Sony for a while, and the Wii success can stay steady. As the component costs come down Sony can drop the price down to consumer friendly points, and the PS3 will be a very viable console for both Sony, and third parties. With all three platform holders making money, and growing their userbases (even if it is at a slower rate in the PS3's case) non of them will see a huge need to move onto the next generation for a while. That brings us to third parties.

Anyone that is big into gaming should know by now that the transition from generation to generation is very tough on developers, and publishers. This generation has been one of the hardest the industry has ever seen. As development costs have skyrocketed, and the userbases of the consoles has not yet reached out to the mass market many companies have had to post huge losses. This has forced more companies to merger, and many dvelopers have simpily had to shut down. The longer we go without bringing in a new round of consoles the better it is for the industry. As we saw last generation, even after the next gen consoles were out we had amazing games coming to there older siblings. With the massive userbase games could have seen huge sales numbers, and companies could have started to become very profitable, but due to Microsoft bleeding money, and Nintendo having to little marketshare to get third party support we had to move on.

If things can stay close enough were all three platforms are making money, and getting third patry support this gen could easly last tell 2013 or 2014. This would be very good for the whole industry as developers could get a chance to really get their heads around parrallel processing so that the transition to the next gen can be easier, publishers can make profits and build reserves for the hammering the next transition will give to their profits, and gamers will not have to worry about dropping cash on another console for a long time.

The longer this generation lasts the better it is for all of us. If we and the platform holers are happy with what we have, and the need for a next gen system can be held off for longer the more of an improvment we will see with the next round of consoles. I think that this is the most important part for us. If we get a new wave of consoles in 2011 the differace in graphics and gameplay would be improved slightly over this generation, but if we can wait it out another 2 or 3 years the differance could start to become major. Personally this is what I really hope for. If this generation gets cut down by 2011, the new round of consoles are not going to be much of a different experiance than that of the current consoles, and to me that would be a shame.

What are your thoughts? Is an extended generation something you are interested in or is the need for better graphics just to high? Would you rather have another gen of the current consoles on steroids or would you like to wait until technology can truly deliver something that can give the next gen a truly freash feel?

Thanks to those that read all of this and post thought out ideas, I know this is quite the read.