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Staude said:

sorry i had to do it. To be fair i'll now tell you why you are wrong. ... gamers buying the 360 now has the same view of it they've always had. The only difference is that now, you can go into a store and get a 360 or a ps2 for about the same, so when you do, most gamers will naturally pick the 360 because it's a different ballgame from the ps2 furthermore were in a economic crysis so many parents whose children has written "console" or whatever on their wishlist, will go out and quite possibly get the 360 simply because it's so cheap.. The view of the console itself haven't changed.. the price has. 

I appreciate the substantial debate Staude.

Yes - no doubt the price was a major factor in getting to this point. But the price had been decreasing for a while The 360 Core (which is essentially the Arcade) was released with a $300 price tag - already half the price of the PS3. The price was gradually decreased over time, with a price drop in spring 2008. Still, until september 2008 there was virtually no movement on the sales chart of the 360 in Europe.

Then, a few additonal dollars of a price reduction in mid-September and suddenly and all hell breaks lose in continental Europe. The 360 almost quadruple its sales.

If it was just an issue of price then I would have expected to see the same effect across all regions and then your theory would have had merit. But it is clear from the numbers that Europe had a completely disproportionate reaction to the price decrease, like nowhere else on earth. In NA the growth was small, in the UK it was "just" doubling. But in continental Europe we are observing a x3.84 of the prior years sale!

With such a disproportionate reaction it is clear that something else is playing a role. Some special Dynamic that existed only in continental Europe and nowhere else. The tale of the numbers and the known history strongly support the theory of a super-strong Sony brandname in Europe that for years was sufficient to efectively block the entry of the 360 to the region, but that with the last price-cut the 360 at last was able to break the Sony brand-name strunglehold on the region and at last established itself as a legitimate European gaming platfrom.

So the 360 price cut is the trigger. The chain of reaction it triggered  is irrevesible because from this point on, and for the first time in the region, the 360 will a valid and credible alternative to the Playstation.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3