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scottie on 25 November 2008
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amirnetz said:
ioi said:
Or that there is a lot of stock in place ready for christmas...

No. Not that much. 465K is about what the 360 sold in all of October in “Others”– and this would be just the increase over the regular inventory so altogether it would be about 2 full months of channel inventory. We are talking early November still and the retailers have a long way to go to the busy season. Stocking the shelves and holding so much inventory so early and spending so much capital makes no sense.

Moreover, the discrepancies showed up much earlier – in the September earning release of Microsoft it was apparent that the VGChartz 360 numbers were very off for “Others”.

 

See: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=49090

 

amirnetz said:

VGC puts the Q3 sales of the 360 sales on 1.85M.  Microsoft reported a for the same Q3 period sales of 2.2M units.

Before I continue, I am anticipating the immidiate claim/excuse of "VGC counts sold to consumers units and Microsoft counts shipped to retailers units so you cannot compare".

BS. I can compare. Unless there is any compelling evidence that the retailers had increased their in-store inventory, we must assume that the amount of in-store inventory is fairly constant with small flactuations and therefore  "Shipped" is pretty much the same as "Sold to consumers".

So after this is settled, we can do the math and see that VGC undertracked the 350 WW by 350K units or about 20%. Not great, not too bad. So it seems.

But there is a problem. a big one. NPD reported for the quarter USA retail sales of 747K for the 360. Adding the customary additional 10% for Canada gives 823K total for the Americas based on NPD. VGC was counting 880K for the same period. Very close and we can split the difference and put total Americas sales at 850K for the quarter.

Japan sales for the same period are at 116K based on VGC/MC.

So together Japan + Americas together are totaling 966K for the period.

So this means that Microsoft sold 2,200K - 996K = 1,204K units in "Others".  This is far above VGC estimates of 854K units in "Others" for the period.

So VGC was undertracking Microsoft in "Others" by over 40% for a full quarter!!!

Just as significant is the fact that "Others" totaled 40% more than "Americas", which is at odds with VGC assertion that Americas and Others are about the same sales volume for the 360.

These big sales of the 360 in others corresponds very well with Microsoft claims of a substantial increase in sales in Europe following the September price cut. 

So you guys were off by about 40% already at the end of september - this is not a Xmas problem.

 

 

Amirnetz, this guy is the boss, show some respect.

 

Also, show some respect to my lover, her name is mathematics and you will treat her better than you were in that post