The Next XBox

[amirnetz]

Infamy79 said:

Games are getting bigger and bigger with higher-res content. More RAM will mean using more detailed textures, these take up more and more space. By the time the next-gen starts a standard HD game could be around 25GB+, this is still a lot of data even in 3-4 years.

Currently there are around 14-15 million registered LIVE users out of 23 million console owners. This means that by switching to online only it would cut out 1/3 of their user base. If MS wants to make a "casual friendly" console then they CANNOT switch to a pure digital distribution model. With the recent price cuts, the Arcade 360 model is making up 50% of it's sales, the arcade is not able to use LIVE for online, so how could you possibly cut out that much of the market by moving to a model that predominantley only the hardcore supports?

Regarding the size of the games - this is not really an issue for digital distribution. You can start playing the game after 500MB were downloaded while the content for the next levels is continously downloaded in the background. Technically - there is just no need for the whole 25GB to be present at the same time on the console. As a sidebar - 25GB games are super-expensive to produce, don't expect too many of those (but this comment is off-topic).

"With the recent price cuts, the Arcade 360 model is making up 50% of it's sales, the arcade is not able to use LIVE for online"??? Who is feeding you this misinformation??? Please take note: The Arcade is fully Live enabled. I am using it at home and watching netflix.

Regarding the mandatory Live subscriptions - First, this is indeed a change in the business model and like any change there are some risks involved. That said, I regard the risk level as fairly low. Consumers are very much OK with subscriptions for content and information services. Cable TV, Cell Phone, Internet Surfing, Netflix, newpapers are all examples of that. Games, content and entertainment are just one more of those services. It's as natural as moving from purchased DVD movie viewing to cable TV based subscrition movie watching. The users are already shown their willingness to pay (even when some alternative seem free) - that is a great indication that this going to continue to be a very successful model.