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Based on Microsoft's statements, the 360 have shipped 25M units by now. The channel holds about 1M in inventory typically though for Black Friday the channel have probably stocked more. so about 23.5M have actually been purchased by consumers.

Can the 360 add another 3.5M to the balance?

Yes. It will easily sell 3M in December and 0.5M for the rest of November (including Black Friday).

But is is going to be close. A few hundreds of thousands each way.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3