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The Joker on 28 March 2007
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Shane said: Unless the PlayStation brand is abducted by aliens, Sony's fine. They may lose a step, but a lost step off 125+ million isn't a big deal.
Actually, they have to turn this around ASAP if they want to even stay in the race. If something significant hasn't happened by the end of the year, it's all over. (See albionus post about the circle of death.) The Playstation brand wasn't enough for the PSP and it's doing even less for the PS3. PS2 sold the most last generation because it had the most games, and it had the most games because it very quickly got the biggest installed base.
Shane said:Nintendo's sold well in its first few months. That we're all well aware of, as it gets beaten into people's heads day in and day out. I'm looking beyond that.
You're not really looking beyond it, you're just trying to ignore clear market trends to somehow rationalize an outcome where the console war goes your way. The fact is that success causes success and once the snowball starts rolling it's extremely hard to stop. (Again see albionus post.) No system in history has had such a great start to then simply slow down and die.
Shane said:In the case of many major franchises, it's just simply not going to be technologically possible to release them on Wii, so the best case scenario for something like GTA or FF is a side story or last gen remake.
Not true. Most major franchises went to the PS2 last time because it had the largest installed base (despite both the GC and the Xbox being technologically superior) and they will go to Wii if Wii gets the largest installed base. Dragon Quest is the single largest third party franchise on the Japanese market and it went to the DS for crying out loud.
Shane said:That's unlikely to win out over the pluses of doing exclusives for Sony or Microsoft, which even takes into account the aforementioned underpowered system issue, as if it's exclusive to PS3 or 360, a port to the other is dirt cheap should a decision be made to remove that exclusivity.
Uh, this just means that non-exclusives fit well on PS3 & 360, not that exclusives do. Exclusives always work best on the largest installed base, and that is looking to be the Wii before long. (In fact, right now it's selling significantly more than PS3 & 360 combined.)