By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Hyruken on 19 November 2008
Edit Thread
TheTruthHurts! said:
Darth Tigris said:
RolStoppable said:
The PS3 probably won't ever pass the 360 in lifetime sales. The battle takes place in the Western markets, Japan will be nearly a non issue even though the PS3 will win this region obviously. But since Japanese support for both consoles will most likely dry up due to the Wii's success, hardware sales for the 360 and PS3 in Nippon will drop to insignificant amounts for the most part of the rest of this generation.

The 360 and PS3 share the majority of their games, but Microsoft seems to have the slightly more important exclusives for the Western markets. That however is pretty much offset by Sony's stronger brand recognition in continental Europe. So the momentum between the two systems will mostly shift due to pricecuts and rarely due to a game release.

If we assume that the PS3 beats the 360 in Japan by an additional two million by the end of its lifetime, that still leaves the 360 with a four million lead in the Western markets and as mentioned in the previous paragraph, it looks unlikely that the PS3 could overcome this. The lifespans of both systems will end at pretty much the same time, because they are both dependent on each other in terms of third party releases, so the supposed advantage of a longer lifespan for the PS3 is unrealistic.

 

 Great post. 

 

          Agreed, explains everything intelligently. 

 

 Also agreed, this sums it up pretty well.

The problem is the PS3 fanboys are expecting (insert game here) to spark the fight back, the tide will change and it will shift millions of consoles. This is just being very hopeful. There is nothing in the Sony arsenal that will have the ability in the future to shift consoles like games it has seen this year i.e GT:prologue,GTA4,MGS4,Ratchet and Clank, Drakes Fortune,Warhawk,Lair,Haze,Resistance 2,LBP etc.. etc.. These games have sold consoles for the PS3 but it is still strugling in the markets that will ultimatly sell the most and that is US/UK. GT5 wil not spark the fight back. It will sell well but it has competition now from Forza. A game people in the UK (the people who buy the most racing games) have warmed to. White Knight is another game people are hyping up as a game that will also help the fight back but again it is no Final Fantasy. it is no Star Ocean. It is being made by Level 5 who are very hit and miss. They are best known for Dragon Quest 8 which was helped by Square Enix. That game sold loads in Japan but very little in the rest of the world. So say this game sparks sales in Japan to the point where it helps to shift say 2m more units ahead of the 360 there it wont have the same effect in the rest of the world. But to counteract the effect the game will have in japan 360 have become partners with Square Enix, the compnay with a license to print money in japan. They have Last Remnant and Star Ocean 4. Games that have a higher profile in Japan then White Knight. So while WKC could spark sales in Japan for the PS3 it could also mean LR and SO4 could spark 360 sales also seeing as Star Ocean is a massivly popular series.

So that then leaves Sony needing to make 4m units back in the western games market. Which means they have to not only start selling weekly more games then 360 but stay that way for a longtime. Considering it has only sold 2m in the entire year there to expect a 100% increase in sales PLUS the extra needed to stay ahead of 360 weekly sales would require something extraordinary. In the UK the gap between the 360 and PS3 is widening each week such is in other regions.

A sales cut for the PS3 would help the console a lot. But even then after those people have gone out to pick one up the numbers will just drop back to normal eventually. And this in my view is the problem. Sony has waited too long at its current price. You would expect the 360 to widen its gap over the next 4 weeks by at least 300k-500k. Sony needed to reduce the price to try and steal some of the parents who are buying a console for little Timmy this holiday. In a recession people are stingy with their money. They will not spend the best part of $200 more for effectivley less. 

Then after the holidays January and Febuary will be a bad time for all sales. In that period the PS3 will not make back "hundreds of thousands" of consoles. That is just un-realistic.

So in my view Sony had to win this holiday in america, they pinned all their hopes on LBP and Resistance 2 and that doesnt seem to have worked. They needed a price cut to go with it. And now they will suffer for not doing so. The punishment will probably mean they are knocked out of the race for 2nd place all together. To get 4m-6m units back would require a miracle. The only thing that could maybe do that would be Grand Theft Auto 5 being 100% exclusive again. Seeing as Microsoft and RockStar are currently $$$ buddies that is not going to happen.