Kantor said:
atma998 said:
Kantor said:
atma998 said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Regarding GT5, I wrote this in another thread.
Compared to GT3, this is the case.
GT3 released in Americas/Others with 13M Ps3s WW.
GT5 should release with at least double of that.
GT3 did probably not sell at all after February 05, as then GT4 was released in Americas/Others. At that time the sales of Ps2 were at 80M. Realistically, GT3 didn't sell over 10K weekly for more than 2 years. That means that it sold at least 12M of its sales with an userbase of 13-50M.
GT5 will probably also sell 10K + for max 2 years only. If we assume that Ps3 makes 10M a year after GT5 is released, it will sell pretty much all its sales with an userbase of 30-50M, and that is looking pessimistic at it.
So I'd say that GT5 has a better situation to sell much than GT3 did.
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Like I said in another thread :
Ok let's use logic here...
GT4 did 10 millions on a userbase of 125 millions PS2. Why a GT5 on a 20-30 millions userbase would do better?
GT3 did about 14 millions on a smaller userbase right but also on the most popular console of its time. So the userbase increased very quickly as GT3 sales.
Now PS3 is a far different story. It's the less popular console of its time. Plus GT5 have solid competition this gen in the name of Motorstorm. Also no game on PS3 is close to 10 millions even GTAIV which is considered by many as 'the game of the gen'.
conclusion : GT5 will do around 4 millions LTD Worldwide.
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And as I replied in another thread, GTA4 is not the game of the gen, nor is it even close. MotorStorm does not touch Gran Turismo, the Prologue of GT5 sold better than the Prologue of GT4.
Even if it's not 4 million, I say 8 million is a reasonable bet. GTA4 sold 4.6 million, DESPITE being a same-day release on the then far more popular 360. If it was an exclusive, it could easily have reached 8 million, rivalled Halo 3's sales, and put the PS3 in the lead for good. Regardless of its quality, or lack thereof (no it's a good game, but not worth these ridiculous 10/10s) it's a Grand Theft Auto and is guaranteed to sell well.
Also, there were some 15 million PS3s when GTA4 was released. By the time Gran Turismo 5 comes out, it will probably be 25-30 million, depending on when it is finally finished.
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Where's your logic here? People in general don't care about exclusive or not do you think they were saying '' Oh GTA4 is on PS3 only so I will buy this game '' ? PS3 owners who enjoyed previous iterations of GTA bought GTA4 and people who disliked it did'nt. And in case you dont know GTA4 was a ''two weeks system seller''. It gives a boost of 190k consoles on its first week and 40k on its second week before PS3 came back to its average sales. So there was'nt a massive impact on sales. Anyway GT isnt > than GTA, so there's no chance this game sell 8 millions. 4 millions is a far reasonable bet. If it have great legs it could do 5 millions but not more.
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Actually, people do that. Granted, not very many, but some do.
But that wasn't my logic. Not at all.
Imagine that you own a 360 and not a PS3. GTA4 comes out on 360 and PS3. Do you buy a PS3 for GTA4, or do you buy it on 360?
There were far more people back then who owned a 360 only than a PS3 only. If you looked at the 360 sales figures for GTA4, you would see that they were over 6 million. Which is very high.
If a game is PS3 exclusive, then only PS3 copies of the game will be sold. If it is on PS3 and 360 then, almost ALWAYS, the 360 version will sell more than the PS3 version, for the two simple reasons that:
1) More people own 360s
2) 360 owners buy more software on average
GTA4 would be a massive system seller on PS3 if it was exclusive. It would also be a massive system seller on 360 if exclusive. I'm not talking about a two-week bump. I'm talking about a Halo 3-style TWO MONTH bump.
Multiplats don't generally impact sales that much and it says a lot about the GTA brandname (and the power of reviews) if it gives the PS3 a bigger boost than several exclusives have in the past.
And for some people, GT certainly is better than GTA. Not for many, but for some.
So I stick by my conclusion that GT will sell around 8 million copies. I say Halo 3 has about an equal chance of hitting 10 million.
Expect a Halo 3-sized boost for the PS3 when GT launches. You think 5 million people who have played GT are going to settle for anything less than GT5?
And like I said, when GT5 releases, the PS3 install base will be double what it was when GTA4 released. 4.6 million *2 = 9.2 million. But attach rates do not change uniformly. A game on a 120 million selling platform will not sell 6 times the amount of the games on a 20 million selling platform.
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