How well will Gran Turismo 5 do?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Sullla said:

- GT5 will release vastly later in the PS3's lifecycle. GT3 was one of the earliest PS2 titles, and benefited a lot from having little competition. It was one of those games that people bought to showcase their shiny new system; look at Motorstorm 1 sales for a good example. Coming out early also gave this game a very, very long time to sell - something that GT5 won't have going for it.

- GT3's early release meant it hit "Greatest Hits" status and bargin bin cheap price midway through the PS2's lifecycle, helping it squeeze out several million more sales. Sony won't be able to do the same thing with GT5, as it won't be releasing until holiday 2009 (in the most optimistic scenario) and the astronomical development costs won't be able to justified a reduced price for a very long time. This will depress sales long term, although it won't do anything to stop huge week 1 numbers.

 

 

 That's 2 very good points I forgot about in my prediction. That means I probably overshot it a bit, to a 9-11M sounds more reasonable than 11-13M when thinking about it.