Does Wii need to outsell PS3 + 360 to lure 3rd parties?

[Final-Fan]

Biggerboat said:

The tme is at hand when Wii will pass the current market leader and claim number 1 spot yet in comparison to it's 2 competitor's 3rd party support, in investment at least, it is still trailing. A logical reason for this is that Wii's unprecedented success has taken the development world by surprise and that the current superior HD lineup is just a result of green lights given to projects at a time when PS3 was seen as the inevitable victor, but maybe there's more.

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My theory is that devs are effectively seeing the 2 HD consoles as 1. 10 mill may be an amazing milestone for Wii to hit in 9 months but it still falls about 4 short of 360 + PS3's total install base. Take into account also that dev's probably have a clearer idea of what sells on the traditional consoles and it may mean that for Wii to take centre stage in 3rd parties plans it has to dominate not 1 but both of it's competitors combined to truly succeed.

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Try this analogy and see if you like it:  Think of the large game publishers as big oil tankers or those superlarge cargo ships.  Those ships can turn their rudders and adjust the propeller speed, but they still take miles and miles to start going in the new direction.  Putting more energy into making the turn does run into diminishing returns at some point. 

I think that most of the independent publishers are doing all they reasonably can to switch focus to the Wii.  (Not all of them will bother to make actually good games, but that's the price of popularity.)  But that process takes time, and they can only speed it up so much before they are burning more energy to make the switch than it's worth. 

Even if the Wii was selling 10 million a month it would be the same story, but with even more crappy ports and quick-and-dirty casual games.