How well will Gran Turismo 5 do?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Okay, this is going slightly off topic, but it is relevant still.

A lot of people seem to think that the Ps2's big sellers will sell a lot less on the Ps3. It is logical to believe this, as the Ps2 had a far higher userbase than the Ps3 is likely to ever get.

Still, if you go back and look at some of the Ps2's biggest games, they sold much of it before the Ps2 even breached 50 million. A few examples of this is GT3 (10-12 million at least), GTA 3 (~ 10M), Final Fantasy X (~ 7M) MGS 2 (~5M).

So if you look at it, almost all the Ps2's other super sellers were sequels to these franchises. In fact, the only other 5M + sellers than weren't sequels, were NFS Underground 1 & 2.

 

So, how does this really make sense? Well, it is simple. Competition. On Ps2, a hell of a lot of games sold in the 3M range. That's not going to happen with the Ps3. If you look at it, the only great selling Ps2 games were the ones that were some of the best in the genre, and had an earlier installment come out early.

So apart from those titles (GTA, GT and FF), almost no other Ps2 titles managed to stand out from the huge competition, and sell a lot more than those.

 

So, competition is important. Looking at only installbase doesn't work.

If there's 1 thing we are seeing this gen, it is that we are seeing less high quality games. There are far less top notch games on all consoles. This means that the top notch games are seeing far, far less competition than they would have in the 6th gen, and that makes them sell far better.

 

Look at it.

For 5M + sellers, Wii looks like it will beat Ps2. Ps2 has 12 of them, Wii already has 9 out that are bound to make it (8 that have).

For 10M + sellers, Ps2 has 4. By the end of the year, Wii will have 3 non-bundled ones, and 2 more that are out have a change of passing it.

For highest sellers, Wii is going to fly past, with Wii Fit beating GTA:SA, MKWii beating GT3, and Wii Play beating Vice City.

 

Still, the Wii is on track to selling pretty much exactly as much software as Ps2 was. It is just that Wii has far less competition, so its top sellers take off.

 

GC vs Ps3.

 

Gamecube had 6 games over 3M, Ps3 already has that.

GC had 3 games over 6M, Ps3 already has that.

Ps3's top sellers will fly by the GC's top 3.

 

I don't think I even need to do X360 vs XB...

 

So, it is logical to assume that Gamecube and Xbox titles will sell far more this gen that their previous installments did, and that Ps2 titles will sell about the same.

 

Do you agree with this, or am I incorrect?