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superchunk on 16 November 2008
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Lets see.

Generally we will see the product at E3 and other game conventions at least a year before it launches. So that rules out 2009.

All 3 companies are selling at decent levels and MS and Sony really need to make profits on their current consoles. That and I really don't think we will see the next consoles at >$350 price points MS and Sony both need to get their current consoles sub-$200 on all skus prior to pushing out new models. This would lead me to believe 2010 launches are also out of the questions. As Sony will definitely not be sub $200 until at least 2012 and Nintendo is in no hurry to end this gen.

I've been pegging 2011 as MS's next launch. I would think that by then MS would be down to one sku @ ~$150 for a 360 w/ ~80gb HDD. Then they would put out their new model @ ~$350. The one breaker for this is if they think Sony will be forced to wait until 2013 for a new model. Then they may hold off until 2012.

This year BR players are ~$180 for older models. But, that is not the only high cost item in the PS3, the cell chip is also expensive and since it isn't as much of a mass market product like the BR lasers and such are it won't reduce in price as quickly. That combined with Sony need to continue to be profitable on the hardware from here on out, I would expect that in '09, '10, '11 the price reductions to bring it at best to ~$230. Since Sony will also not want to bring a new machine out >$350 again, it won't release a PS4 until the PS3 is going to be at most $180. I would bet they will plan a 2012 release, but may be forced to 2013 due to costs.

Nintendo is the generation leader and they have never rushed a product out to beat their competition. In every generation, for better or worse, they have always come out a year or two after their competitors. Wii has already proven that tech specs are not what will drive sales, but content is king. Therefore, AT BEST they will plan for a one year late start and come out in 2012. They may push it longer for 2013/14 to ensure a product that can be priced, profitably, at most $250 again along with capabilities probably somewhere between PS360.

So my best guesses are 2011/12 for MS, 2012/2013 for Sony, and 2012-2014 for Nintendo.