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This all depends on where we are at 2-3 years from now. If the economy is back on track and HDTVs become the standard, I'd bet we'll see a new Wii in 2012. By that time, a BR drive will be cheap, as will more powerful CPUs.

My guess would be in 2012 we've got a new Wii, with BR and HD, that is slightly more powerful than the PS3/360 and priced at $250.