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Really it all depends if/when Sony decides to drop the price.

That being said, the older a gen gets, the less new releases sell systems, since consoles already have quite a few quality titles. For instance, I have a friend who bought a 360 last week with halo 3. He doesn't care about the hot new releases, he just wants to play a game he's heard is good. I think some posters forget that most buyers are like my friend.

I do think the blu-ray is a nice difference maker for sony, and will increasingly help drive their sales, particularly if MS doesn't match their price cut(s).

Speaking of MS price cuts - when they decide to do another one, I bet they'll discontinue the arcade model and make the pro $199.