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I don't think PS stands a chance.

If TLR doesn't have a lasting impact for the Xbox, they might take Japan (there seems to be an increased release schedule there, which should help them keep a steady lead over the Xbox, unless TLR does extremely well).

Europe is a tight one to take, although December sales could see it go towards Sony in the end.

US is a lost cause as it stands, meaning they will have to do extremely well (compared to the xbox) in the other two regions, and as it stands now, they won't be able to offset the lack of sales with these two other regions:

No, they won't probably.