XBox 360 - 40M Units Sold by the End of Next Year!!!

[amirnetz]

Got your attention? Good. But I am dead serious about this scenario.

The math really does work. 40M shipped by the end of 2009 is really not far-fetched.

Let's look at the data:

Microsoft xbox CFO is telling us that the 360 will sell/ship over 25M within the month of November. She is not lying. She the the CFO and these are official financial figures, not marketing hype. 

VGC is projecting that in Nov-Dec the 360 will move 3.8M units. Since December is a much larger month than November, we can safely estimate that 2.2 of these units will be sold in December.

Therefore, together, it is projected that Microsoft will ship 27.2M units by the end of 2008.

This leaves 12.8M to get to 40M by the end of 2009.

Can the 360 do it? Let's do the math:

In this quarter (Q4), Microsoft is going to sell about 5M units WW. Let's assume a nice growth of 20% for Q4 next year and sales of 6M units during that quarter. Optimistic? A little. But with the recession over, a nice "Halo Recon" bump, a slim design and an additional price reduction (say $230 for the premium model) it is very plausible to see such growth.

The 6M units in Q4 2009 leaves 6.8M to be sold in the other 3 quarters to get the to 40M.  This means sales of 2.27M for each of the other quarters. And, wow, this is exactly what the 360 sold in Q3 this year!

The math works! The 360 can really get to 40M next year. Perhaps an optimisitic scenario, but really not out of the question.

And if it can really do it, perhaps the 100M lifetime sales claim are not that far fetched.