| WiiStation360 said: I though you had Gears at 3 million first week? Edit: Make that 3-3.5 million |
Read lower into the thread. I stated that 3 million for it's first 5 days, since the release week was so wonky versus Halo 3.
Here's my quote about halfway down the thread:
I think the advantage is that Gears 2 *did* release near a weekend, where most gamers buy games, and play over the weekend. Also, it has the advantage of getting 2 full weekends of sales before Week-2 is out. I really don't think having an extra 3 days of weekdays is going to give Gears 2 some sort of insane boost.
Here's the way I look at it *assuming it is as frontloaded as Halo 3*:
Halo 3:
1.8m First Day
3.8m First Week (5 days)
4.597m in 12 days
Grand Theft Auto IV:
Ukn First Day
3.4m First Week (5 days)
4.265m in 12 days
Looking at Day-0 Gears data, it's in between GTAIV and Halo 3 in the best case scenario, and at worst, at 80% of Halo 3 for launch sales (or 1.45m on day-0).
The other aspects to take into consideration is/are Week 3 data. Assuming sales keep going down, both GTAIV and H3 saw 50% drops from Week-2 to Week-3. To me, that means that sales may not be that insanely hot (by comparison) after the 2nd weekend. If that's the case, then I don't think that the extra 3 days of sales would help a whole bunch (on average, both GTAIV and H3 sold 50,000-70,000 units per day on week 3. Which would put the 3 day advantage of a 2 week cycle between 150,000-210,000 units lower than either comparison, which I think is likely since the missing days are weekdays, and not weekend days).
*Of course* this assume that the extra days are closer to week-3 numbers, and not week 2 numbers. Week 2 numbers for H3 and GTAIV are around 110,000-130,000 per day, which would drop the low end of the scenarios by an extra 180,000-240,000 units. But for these scenarios, I'll just use week-3 data.
So putting that forth, we should look at these plausible scenarios:
- Worst Case: Gears 2 sells exactly like Halo 3, ~81% of Halo 3 on it's first 2 weeks, minus 150,000-210,000 units for 3-day discrepancy.
- Total After 2 weeks: 3,413,000-3,473,000
- Best Case: Gears 2 sells somewhere in between GTAIV and Halo 3 in a similar timeframe, minus 150,000-210,000 units for the 3-day discrepancy.
- Total After 2 weeks: 4,221,000-4,281,000
So the middle of the road scenario would be between 3,817,000 and 3,877,000 units in 9 days assuming similar trending for week 3 data. If you used week 2 averages (which I think are just too high, given the fact they're weekdays), your looking at a bare minimum of 3.2m in 2 weeks, and still having a best-case scenario over 4.0m (with the median being between 3.6 and 3.7m)
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
