dallas on 27 March 2007
kars said:
dallas said:
Ok, in response:
1. Microsoft's stock price had it built in that the HD-DVD would have done "alright" but now it is losing that war, which means that there will be one less source of cash for them. They will have to f
Excuse me, but I think you exagerate their HD DVD Business dramatically. It would be totally invisible in their share, because they were mainly connected with their codec which is also a codec for BluRay. Even the Xbox 360 doesn't play a dramatical role in their shre price. The big factor in their numbers is Vista and the ussual amount of overexageration and unlogical behaviour in the stock market. In many cases the stock prices do not have anything to do with reality. Somtetimes it has more to do with beliefs, than with nconcrete reasons, so it is pretty pointless to find reasons for minute changes. An upset stomach of one of the dealers can have a bigger influence than the whole BluRay HD DVD thing.
I think that the HD-DVD business is easy money once a victor emerges between HDDVD and bluray. So, once one of the competing DVD companies gets a monopoly, it will be very difficult to unseat that company. Its an easy $3-5 for Sony that will extend into the future, and will aid its game division.
Now, their vista has been doing great, so why the significant stock price drop in the last few months? That is too big of a drop to happen, unless something about MSFT has changed in the eyes of the investors. I think that this is probably the DVD thing.