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I can speak with some experience about early adopting--in 2006 I purchased a Toshiba HD DVD player after it had been out for just two months. I also purchased a Wii when they first came out in Nov 2006. The success of both of these items are at opposite extremes. However, I look back at both purchases with the same fondness--I don't feel like an intellectual midget for getting HD DVD or on the cutting edge of culture because of the Wii.

Look, it's understood that when you're an early adopter that you may be left holding the bag. So if you take that in mind before you make the purchase it's not so devastating if the tech flounders. I would like to also add that being an early adopter has many advantages besides just 'playing with a new toy.' For example, in the case of HD DVD many of the early adopters who were vocal on the internet were able to actually the shape the product by ways of suggestion. It is my understanding that the same thing is happening with the PS3 today as owners of the consoles make suggestions that are sometimes implemented in software updates! (In-game XMB). If you wait until the technology has been out and taken a firm market hold it's much more take it or leave it, as in--good luck getting it changed/fixed if you don't like it. (Ipod I'm looking at you).

Another point to make about early adopting that maybe some people aren't aware of is that it's voting with your wallet. If NOBODY picks up the product..."gonna wait until it's decided" then it may never happen and that whole market may end up as a niche (SACD / DVD-A ...not a great example I know for other reasons).  So NO early adopting is definitely not silly.