VGChartz vs. NexGen Wars

[marc]

Lingyis said:

Delusional said:

 

You're right that you can't time the events nor can you predict how long it takes to respond/recover. But if certain events do happen, since markets are usually efficient (strong, semi-strong, and weak), it's hard for one to consistently earn money (to short it if it crashes). They may earn it couple times using analysis tools and with luck, but there's no way to earn money every single time. But if we know normally what trigger things, even if you do not make instant money out of it, you can statistically analyze whether you should worry about it if you plan to invest <1 year, 5 years, 10 years. The benefit I see is to give you a better position than other investors who do not have that information. It can't guarantee you will earn lots with that info, but for sure, you should be able to invest in a better performing portfolio with less risk (beta) than the rest of the market, which is filled with casual investors as well. That's how I would answer it.

yeah, i see your logic. ultimately, a lot of time it's the traders that make the call if certain events are "triggers" and to either identify or anticipate them and it gives them another weapon in their arsenal.

This is a case of a statistic with very low power. Many engineers (especially chemical/bio-engineers) will tell you that no statistic is meaningful if it is not followed by its power calculation. Unfortunately... many statisticians don’t even know what "power calculations" are... and certainly none of those stock calculator/predictors will ever even mention them to you.