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You can't compare market share percentages like that. Going from 25% to 50% is much easier than going from 50% to 75%. Going from 75% to 100% is impossible. It's all 25%, but since it isn't linear the placement matters.

OT: I do see the Wii hitting 50% first - mid Q2 2009 at the earliest. In fact, I'm not sure if the PS3 will ever get to 25%. Neither is guaranteed, but if we assume the Wii will get to 50% eventually, then the PS3 will need to outsell the 360 to reach 25%. That isn't happening until 2010, at the earliest.