One of the biggest advantage PS3 has for future sales is that still most potential buyers are waiting for a price cut and more big games, while most die hard XB360 fans already got one at the very latest as soon as Halo 3 was released. Is XB360 approaching saturation? Maybe MS snappy, but shorter sighted policy payed more in the immediate, while Sony longer sighted one is poised to start paying much more in the long run.
Anyhow I'd bet this gen MS will manage to sell at least 45million consoles, so, accounting also for SW royalties, it will repay initial investments, RRoD losses and make even a decent profit. We won't lose competitors and that's good.