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Best case scenario, they would be in a three way struggle with Sony and Microsoft for the market with no clear winner.

Far more likely they would have sold to the same 20 million people (not accounting for likely attrition) who bought the Gamecube.

Nintendo simply wouldn't have been equiped to go toe to toe with Microsoft or Sony on a purely hardcore front at the start of this generation, they lost support of too many developers over the last 2 gens.