I think that Nintendo will win in Japan by a wide margin this generation. Other then GT5 and FFXIII there actually nothing that can really be consider as a killer app for the ps3 there. On the 2 last generations Nintendo just couldn't compete against Sony because they didn't have the quantity and the diversity of games that Sony had. This generation is different because:
1. It cost much less to make wii game then ps3 game
2. Wii userbase is bigger then PS3
3. Wii game attach rate is greater then PS3
So smaller company will probably prefer to make games for the Wii then the PS3 because it's less risky and casual gamers on Wii are less demanding then the hardcore gamers on PS3.
But in the US I think that it will be really close race between the 3 consoles. PS3 and the 360 got some really big games coming there as well as Nintendo.
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